Τρίτη, 23 Σεπτεμβρίου 2008

διατραπεζική φώλα..




Σε ένα καπιταλιστικό κόσμο σαν τον δικό μας,ο τελευταίος που πιστεύεις ότι θα χει πρόβλημα είναι οι τράπεζες ή,κάλύτερα,αυτός που διαχειρίζεται πολλά λεφτά..

Και όμως..

Όλα ξεκίνησαν στα τέλη του 2006 όταν και ανακοινώθηκαν τα πρώτα προβλήματα με τα subprime..

Ερχόταν που λες ο τσέλιγκας στην τράπεζα και έλεγε:

-Γειά σας παιδιά.Θέλω ένα δάνειο!
-Ευχαρίστως,απάνταγε η τράπεζα..πες μας κάτι για σένα!
-Να..είμαι χωρίς δουλειά τα τελευταία 3-4 χρόνια,έχω μια υπερχρεωμένη πιστωτική και είχα ξαναπάρει δάνειο αλλά τελικά έγινε μια στραβή και μου κατέσχεσαν το σπίτι.Δε βαριέσαι..
-(Για μαλάκες ψάχνεις?..έπρεπε κανονικά να απαντήσει η τράπεζα πετώντας τον έξω με τις κλωτσιές).Αντ'αυτού όμως, του λέγε με μια λάμψη στα μάτια:
-Πιστεύω ότι έχουμε την κατάλληλη προσφορά για σένα!

Έτσι λοιπόν ο τσέλιγκας φορτώνοταν ένα subprime δάνειο(το συνθετικό sub φέρνει κάτι σε ύποκοσμος,υπάνθρωπος κτλ)
Το subprime δάνειο είχε φυσικά πολύ μεγαλύτερο επιτοκίο από τα κανονικά(prime) δάνεια και άλλους επαχθείς όρους τους οποίους ο τσέλιγκας ούτε που έπαιρνε χαμπάρι..

Αν το δεις από οικονομικής σκοπιάς το θέμα οι τράπεζες είχαν δίκιο να βάζουν μεγαλύτερο επιτόκιο στον τσέλιγκα..αναλάμβανουν μεγάλο ρίσκο δίνοντας του τα λεφτά και γιαυτό περίμεναν να έχουν και μεγαλύτερη απόδοση.

Έφτασε η κακιά η ώρα όμως και το κακό παράγινε με ένα μεγάλο ποσοστό των παραπάνω κακόμοιρων να αδυνατούν να πληρώσουν τις δόσεις του δανείου τους.
Όταν το ποσοστό αυτών που παρατάνε ένα δάνειο,με αποτέλεσμα το σπίτι τους να βγαίνει σε πλειστηριασμό κτλ,είναι σε λογικές τιμές η τράπεζα μπορεί να το διαχειριστεί..αν ανέβει υπέρμετρα τότε παει κατά διαόλου και η ίδια η τράπεζα..

Άσε που οι τράπεζες,με το που εκδίδουν ένα δάνειο δεν περιμένουν κάθε μήνα σαν σπιτονοικοκυρά την δόση.Αντίθετα προεξοφλούν ότι θα πάρουν αύτα τα χρήματα και αγοράζουν άλλα χρηματοοικονομικά προιόντα,ενώ με την σειρά τους οι πωλητές αυτών των προιόντων προεξοφλούσαν ότι θα λάβουν τα λεφτά τους και έκαναν και αυτοί άλλες επενδύσεις..

Πρέπει να τονιστεί ότι η κλασσική έννοια της 'αγοράς' και της 'πώλησης' δεν ίσχυει στο χρηματοοικονομικό παιχνίδι..
Δηλαδή,όταν αγόραζε η τράπεζα τα προιοντα δεν έδινε και ντουκου τα λεφτά..η άλλη πλεύρα της είχε 'εμπιστοσύνη' ότι κάποια στιγμή θα της τα δινε..

Η έννοια όμως της 'εμπιστοσύνης' άρχισε να χάνεται σιγά-σιγά,αρχικά με την χρεωκοπία μερικών,μικρών στην αρχή,επενδυτικών τραπεζών που είχαν ανοιχτεί πολύ με τα subprimes..

Έτσι άρχισε η αμοιβαία καχυποψία..

-Να σου δώσω λεφτά,αναρωτιόταν ο ένας,ή μήπως έχεις κάποια σχέση με τα subprimes?
-Mε προσβάλεις,απάνταγε ο άλλος με ύφος παρθένας που της θίξανε την τιμή.



Αυτό ακριβώς υποστήριζε μέχρι την τελευταία στιγμή ο εικονιζόμενος Dick Fuld,διευθύνων σύμβουλος της Lehman Brothers μίας εκ μεγαλύτερων επενδυτικών τραπεζών στον κόσμο,που πρόσφατα χρεωκόπησε μετά από λειτουργία 158 χρόνων..
-Όλα είναι υπό έλεγχο έλεγε..(μόνο 35 δισεκατομμύρια δολάρια χρειάζοταν τελικά)

Και δυστυχώς δεν είναι η μόνη..συνέχεια ακούμε για κολοσσούς,όπως η Merrill Lynch, που σώζονται τελευταία στιγμή ή κρατικοποιούνται..

Αυτό που με ενοχλεί περισσότερο είναι ότι θα βγουν πάλι οι γραφικοί τύποι με τις θεωριούλες τους περί market inefficiency(ότι δηλαδή από το χρηματιστήριο κανείς τελικά δεν μπορεί να βγει κερδισμένος) και θα την λένε σε όλους...

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24 σχόλια:

Το παιδί της πλατείας είπε...

Φίλε seven_sen σε ευχαριστώ για το σχόλιο σου στην ιστιοσελίδα μου.
Κατα αρχάς θα συμφωνήσω απόλυτα για με την οικονομική ανάλυση(αν και μισω΄τις καπιταλιστικές οικονομικές επιστήμες)

Το οικονομικό σύστημα και το κεφάλαιο ποτέ δεν τελειώνει και όπως έλεγε και η 17Ν όλα τα κόμματα στηρίζουν το κεφάλαιο και το καπιταλιστικό σύστημα.

Βέβαια εν ολίγοις είμαι ενάντια στον Κομμουνισμό που εφαρμόστηκε στην Ρωσία και στα άλλα και καλά σοσιαλιστικά κράτη, γιατί έφερε την εξαθλίωση πιο κοντά στον κόσμο, όσοι ανήκαν στα τότε κομμουνιστικά κόμματα έκλεβαν το τον πολίτη αβέρτα κουβέρτα.

Υποστηρίζω περισσότερο αυτην την οικονομική θεώρηση.
http://el.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CE%91%CE%BD%CE%B1%CF%81%CF%87%CE%BF%CE%BA%CE%BF%CE%BB%CE%B5%CE%BA%CF%84%CE%B9%CE%B2%CE%B9%CF%83%CE%BC%CF%8C%CF%82

Μπές και τσέκαρε και θα τα λέμε πιο συχνά.
Θα σε αποθηκεύσω και στα αγαπημένα μου blogs.

sen_saven είπε...

edo to link tou paidiou gia opoion varietai na kanei copy-paste..

oxi den einai to susthma pou uposthrizoun oi grafikoi oti teleiwse..h wall street einai me ta kerdoskopika paixnidia..

dhladh mia korufaia ependutikh trapeza exei san ypallhlous dekades ma8hmatikous pou prospa8oun na dwsoun katallhles ependutikes sumvoules..

e oi market-inefficiency tupoi sou lene oti osa ma8hmatika k na valeis apo to xrhmatisthrio den vgazeis lefta..

kalos o anarxokolektivismos..megales prosdokies exei omws..me to poy 8a xa8ei h idiokthsia 8a teleiwsei k o an8rwpinos egwismos?

kai auto me ton moutoualismo plaka plaka to kanan kati trapezes twra..

kanan dhladh enan koino logariasmo etsi wste opoia apo autes exei provlhma(paei gia xrewkopia) na travhksei apo ekei lefta..
arketa 'aristerh' taktikh gia trapeza...

Ntinos είπε...

>.me to poy 8a xa8ei h idiokthsia 8a >teleiwsei k o an8rwpinos egwismos?

Αναποδα παει αυτο κανονικά. Τώρα βεβαια για τον αναρχοκολεκτιβισμο δεν ξερω πως το υποστηριζουν...

Την λυση στο οικονομικο κραχ του '30 την εδωσε ενα αλλο πολιτικο συστημα ωστόσο, που δεν χαρακτηριζεται ουτε σοσιαλιστικο ουτε φιλελεύθερο, μαλλον παρεμβατικό.

exofthalmi είπε...

κατι τετοιες στιγμες αισθανομαι ενα ριγος ενθουσιασμου να διαπερναει το βαρυ μου ρασο.
Δε ξερω αν πρεπει να βγαλω κραυγουλα χαρας ή πονου.
Ο Χαρδαβελλας και η Αλεκα τωρα δικαιωνονται.
Θεωριες συνωμοσιας περι λεσχεων της κολασεως και πεποιθησεις περι του δικαιου των πολλων αναδυονται στην ταραγμενη επιφανεια.

σκατα θα φαμε, το μονο σιγουρο. θα τα φατε εδω ή τα τα τυλιξω για το σπιτι?

σαχλαμαρες δε μπορω αλλο να διαβαζω. ο καπιταλισμος και ο σοσιαλισμος και ο κουμουνισμος.
κανεις δε φταιει. τα σκατα στα κεφαλια μας φταινε.

sen_saven είπε...

@ntinos

nai ontws pio or8ologikh h dikia sou seira

gia ton nazismo milas,e?

@exofthalmi

se euxaristo polu gia thn anidiotelh antapodosh ths vizitas..

keep walking!

Regina είπε...

Eμ, όταν ο βλάκας μέσος Αμερικάνος που ήταν 5 χρόνια άνεργος θέλει να αγοράσει ακίνητο επειδή 'έπεσαν οι τιμές', τι να περιμένεις. Απληστία. Και άλλη τόση των τραπεζών.
Kαι δεν είναι και λίγο ειρωνία ότι θα παίρνονται σοσιαλιστικά μέτρα (κρατικοποιήσεις) για να στηριχθεί ο καπιταλισμός;...

sen_saven είπε...

o amerikanos vlakas einai outws h allws..oi trapezes ton phran xampari k phgan na ton dagkwsoun pio xontra..

e otan sthn agora kanenan allon den ton noiazei na mhn dialu8oun ta panta ektos apo to kratos ti na kaneis..

dhladh oloi exoun san vasiko skopo na kerdisoun..ola ta alla sta .. tous

auth h idiothta pou sou grapsa apo idiothtes twn palindromikwn prokuptei?

Ntinos είπε...

> gia ton nazismo milas,e?


Οχι, τα οικονομικα του ναζισμου δεν ξερω αν ηταν και πολυ πετυχημενα στην τελική.

Αυτο που ξελασπωσε την Αμερική είναι οι πολιτικες του Ρουζβελτ, και του γενικοτερου προοδευτικου κινηματος στην Αμερική:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressivism

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